Risks and Opportunity: Managing Risks for Development

The newest World Development Report by the World Bank Group focuses on the risk and its management, as well as its impact on development issues. Opportunities are concomitant with risks and their mismanagement can lead to a reverse of hard-won progress as well as an endangering of the social and economic structure that was at its base. The consequences of mismanaged risks may destroy lives, assets, trust, and social stability. And more often than not, the poorest are hit the hardest.

Risk management can be a powerful instrument for development

Defining risk management as the process of confronting risks, preparing for them and establishing coping strategies with their effects, the report declines two goals for it:

•          the resilience, the ability of people, societies and countries to recover from negative shocks
•          And the prosperity, derived from the successful management of positive shocks that paves way for opportunities for development.

Acquiring knowledge, building protection and obtaining insurance are the prerequisites for preparing to risks and negative shocks.

Why preparing for risks is important

World Development Report 2014 from WB_Research

According to the report, evidence suggests that the benefits of risk managements overwhelmingly outweigh the cost of not to.  Mismanagement of risks create crises. 

• During 2011–12, the famine in Somalia claimed 258,000 lives, despite 11 months of repeated warnings; opportunities for early intervention were missed by the donor community to avoid political and security risks.

 Managing risks means also to assess, evaluate various risks and to take proactive action to counter them. Defining the priorities is thus crucial in developing countries, due to the limited resources. “For instance, a small country prone to torrential rains and also exposed to international financial shocks must decide how much to spend on flood prevention and how much to save to cushion against financial volatility”.

Managing risks must be systemic

Having addressed the benefits of the management of risks, the report calls for a systemic approach to counter exogenous shocks. Risk management requires shared action and responsibility at different levels of society (from the household to the international community). Their complementarity can be broken down this way:

•  At the household level, by pooling resources, protecting its members—especially the vulnerable— and allowing them to invest in their future.
• Communities can provide informal networks of insurance and protection by helping people deal with idiosyncratic risks and pooling resources to confront common risks.
• Enterprises can help absorb shocks and exploit the opportunity side of risk and by extension, contributing to more stable employment, growing income, and greater innovation and productivity.
• The financial system through savings, insurance, and credit can provide useful risk management tools, while managing its own risks responsibly.
• The state has the scale to manage systemic risks at the national and regional levels, to provide an enabling environment for the other systems to function, and to provide direct support to vulnerable people. Social protection (insurance and assistance), public goods (national defense, infrastructure, law and order), and public policy (regulation, macroeconomic management) will be its main mediums.
• The international community, by enabling policy coordination, and giving support to states when they cannot absorb the impact of the risks they face.

In conclusion, the report calls for a mainstreaming risk management into development programs by national government through the creation of national risk board. Such an institution will require a change in approach (a coordinated and systematic assessment of risks at the national and international levels) for more positive outcomes.  The report recognizes that a susbstantial change in the way of doing might be required in the implementation of this recommendation. Five key principles to states are thus put forward:

• Governments should not generate uncertainty or unnecessary risks
• Governments should provide the right incentives for people and institutions to do their own planning and preparation, while avoiding imposing risks or losses on others
• Governments should keep a long-run perspective for risk management by building institutional mechanisms that transcend political cycles
• Governments should promote flexibility within a clear and predictable institutional framework
• Governments should protect the vulnerable, while encouraging self-reliance and preserving fiscal sustainability

The report is available on this link

"Afrique au-delà de 2015" :Un débat à l'ONU sous la houlette du Maroc

A la veille de la réunion de haut niveau sur les Objectifs du millénaire pour le développement (OMD) qui aura lieu en marge de l'Assemblée générale de l'ONU à New York, un débat sur l'Afrique au-delà de 2015 s'est tenu au sein de cette instance, à l'initiative du Maroc.

Ahmed Lahlimi Alami, Haut Commissaire au Plan, Maroc

Le Maroc a organisé, mardi au siège des Nations Unies à New York, un débat sur “L'Afrique au-delà de 2015: quels objectifs pour quel modèle de développement?”, avec la participation de ministres africains, de hauts responsables onusiens, des diplomates, ainsi que des personnalités représentant les institutions financières internationales et régionales.

Tenu en marge de la 68e Assemblée générale des Nations Unies et à la veille de la réunion de haut niveau sur les Objectifs du millénaire pour le développement (OMD), ce débat s'inscrit dans le cadre de la réflexion prospective menée par le Haut commissariat au plan sur “Le Maroc 2030 dans son environnement géostratégique”.

Cette réunion a abordé l'état d'avancement de la mise en œuvre des OMD en Afrique, ainsi que l'agenda de développement au-delà de 2015, à la lumière des expériences de pays africains.

Croissance vs revenu

Le haut commissaire au plan, Ahmed Lahlimi Alami, qui a présidé les travaux de cette rencontre, a souligné que “le Maroc partage avec ses pairs africains la volonté et l'obligation de réaliser une croissance économique forte au service d'un développement humain et d'une cohésion sociale durable”.

“Plusieurs pays de notre continent peuvent se prévaloir aujourd'hui d'avoir réussi au cours de la dernière décennie à accroître le potentiel de leur croissance et à engager des processus prometteurs d'amélioration des conditions de vie de leur population et de démocratisation de leurs institutions”, a poursuivi M. Lahlimi.

“L'Afrique qui réalise l'un des taux de croissance les plus forts du monde, a le taux de revenu par tête d'habitant parmi les plus faibles de toutes les régions à travers le monde.”

AHMED LAHLIMI ALAMI, HAUT COMMISSAIRE AU PLAN.

Pour sa part, le Maroc a anticipé l'après-2015. En dix ans, le Royaume a pu réaliser une croissance forte qui a presque doublé et a investi une moyenne de 30% de sa richesse nationale pour résorber les déficits, développer les infrastructures dans l'ensemble des régions, a expliqué M. Lahlimi.

Retard dans les OMD

Quant au ministre des Affaires étrangères et de la coopération, Saad Eddine El Otmani, il a indiqué que “s'il faut se réjouir que l'Afrique ait fait des avancées importantes au niveau du développement socio-économique, le continent africain accuse toujours du retard par rapport à certains objectifs”.

M. Otmani a fait observer que le chômage des jeunes demeure un défi mondial à surmonter, en particulier au sein du continent africain où les jeunes représentent la majorité de la population.

La promotion des investissements productifs et l'amélioration de l'accès aux marchés sont des éléments essentiels à prendre en considération dans tout programme de développement pour l'après-2015, a-t-il tenu à préciser.

Et de souligner que l'agenda de développement pour l'après-2015 dépendra d'un partenariat mondial renforcé et renouvelé, en plus des moyens solides de sa mise en oeuvre, à travers notamment la définition d'objectifs mesurables et assortis de délais d'application.

Les participants à cette rencontre ont eu l'occasion d'échanger les expériences et les visions sur les rapports en Afrique entre croissance économique, progrès social et modèle de développement, dans une démarche résolument tournée vers l'avenir.

Source : aufait avec MAP

Recognise, Redistribute, Reduce the Women's Unpaid Care Burden

Women in rural environments tends to do work that is not necessarily considered as natural/traditional and thus not qualified as so by the society. Unpaid care is defined by ActionAid as the work traditionally done in the home and in communities and range from the preparation of meals to the care given to children, ill and elderly.

ActionAid International Women’s Rights team piloted the women’s Unpaid Care Work Program in collaboration with ActionAid Kenya, Uganda, Nigeria and Nepal. This program is one of the ActionAid International’s contributions to the National Development Strategies of implementing countries.

Sometimes, women and girls living in poor communities have to forego their basic human rights to an education, healthcare, decent work and leisure time in order to balance all these many activities. This perpetuates gender inequality, reinforces inequitable gender norms and keeps women and girls in poverty.

The aim of the Unpaid Care Work program is:

• To make visible women’s unpaid care work and its importance to the functioning of any society; so that it is valued by women, their communities and governments. 

• To challenge the existing traditional development model that places little  value on care work and front a more equitable division of labour and equal  sharing of these responsibilities in the household between women and men,  boys and girls.
• To propose an alternative gender responsive development model that recognizes and supports men, women, business, civil society organizations and the state actors to provide care in a way that does not unduly burden marginalized groups, especially women and girls. 

• To advocate for formulation or review of mainstream economic policies that reduce the burden of women’s care work.

The project was implemented in four poor communities, two rural in Buseeta, Pallisa and two urban, Kampala city suburbs Wandegeya and  Bwaise. This helped establish the contextual difference between how rural and urban women and men spend their time in relation to care work activities. Through bimensal sessions, it showed progress in the recognition of this burden in the communities and by helping women dispose of capacities and skills likely to improve their socioeconomic conditions (particularly literacy)

The experience bore encouraging outcomes:

Women’s literacy skills have improved and they can read the words underneath the signs used in their diaries. Some women can now write their names and dates

Management of time has also improved with women entering into income generating activities. In Kampala, the women used this time to learn some basic entrepreneurial skills such as growing mushrooms, beading, savings and credit.

More importantly, there's an attitude change at the household level, women have gained greater appreciation by their husbands. The men have gone out of their comfort zones to support their wives in small chores (fetching water) although they remain reluctant to do the cooking and the dishes.

To learn more about this program and experience, please visit this website

Ousmane Aly DIALLO

Reflecting the Realities, Needs and Priorities in Monitoring Human and Social Development in Africa Beyond 2015

This blog, by Wikiprogress Africa Co-ordinator Ousmane Aly DIALLO, is part of the Wikiprogress Series on the Wikiprogress Africa Network and on the Post-2015. This post provides a summary of UNECA’s working paper on the Post-2015  “Working Document on the New Development Indicators Reflecting the Realities, Needs and Priorities in Monitoring Human and Social Development in Africa Beyond 2015” .

With the deadline of the Millennium Development Goals coming fast ahead, most of the stakeholders are already thinking on what needs to be done after 2015 and how the MDG framework can be improved.  As one of the continent most concerned about the challenges of poverty and the well-being of its citizens, Africa is still working on a framework that will encompass all aspects of human and social development. This Working Document on the New Development Indicators Reflecting the Realities, Needs and Priorities in Monitoring Human and Social Development in Africa Beyond 2015, is part of this process.

The limited and modest progress made by African countries towards the achievement of  the MDGs is problematic. Were all the countries on the same footing at the start? Were the goals ever meant to be monitored at the national level? Besides, it somewhat conceals disparities between the different social groups and subnational regions. Considering only the national scope hides from us local and regional inequalities that must be progressively eradicated. It is to be noted in particular that the results obtained from the overall indicators are distorted as they only relate to certain categories of the population.

Progress towards the Millennium Development Goals in Africa

Inequalities and disparities within countries didn’t appear on the MDG framework which gave a distorted view of the reality. Social (ethnicities, castes) and regional (urban/rural) factors all had an impact of the social and human development of people but they weren’t necessarily captured with the national MDG progress ranking. Any new framework has to take into consideration these factors, and since the high-level panel of Eminent Persons has pledged that no one should be left behind, the African concerns are in concordance with the overall direction of the post-2015 framework.

Among the limits put forward, there’s the insufficient place given to the economy in the current MDG framework. The paper stresses the need to start from a strong and competitive economy to improve the well-being and quality of life of citizens through job creation and other targets. This vision is evident in the pyramid of “balanced development” below:

Besides this limit, there is the problem of the poor performance of Africa in regard to the Millennium Development Goals. Most of Sub-Saharan Africa is still lagging behind while the North of the continent is doing much better. This overall modest progress is attributed to several factors in this document, among other the very ambitious goals and the shortcomings in the budgetary policy choices and inefficiency in public expenditures. Despite these limits, the MDGs constitute a big step towards the well-being of people by setting different and complementary targets and pushing all states to achieve them by the end of  a specific date. With less than 1000 days remaining now, some are pushing for an extension of the MDGs while the majority suggest a slight adjustment or more radically a whole rethinking of the MDG framework.

UNECA’s African Centre for Statistics fall in the middle of this debate through their proposals for a new post-2015 framework. Indicators must be based on the development needs of countries according to the report which stresses that all African countries are working on their national development strategies and / or fight against poverty. Yet, there is insufficient convergence between African countries in the choice of indicators and that’s one of the main reasons of the indicators put forward in this document.

Development targets relevant to the African countries were thus identified and to monitor the progress into their achievements, they need to be classified depending on dimensions and the levels of government.

• International stakeholders should deal only with a “very restrictive list of basic indicators that each country should monitor to ensure a decent living for the whole population”. Giving every citizen of the world a basic quality of life should be the aim and that was at the root of the MDGs before their expansion with uneven indicators. The current MDGs still remain relevant although some targets and indicators needs to be improved.

• Secondary indicators that will speed up the transition to a pre-emergent stage (MDGs+) are to be monitored at the sub-regional and regional level. The current eight MDGs remain relevant as a whole but their associated targets and indicators should be better selected. Among the indicators, relevant to this level, are secondary, technical and higher education, infrastructure, macroeconomic framework, regional financial markets, regional integration policies, good governance, transfer of technology and development of internally generated knowledge.

• Policies targeting growth and employment should be at the national level. Emergence indicators (MDGs ++) must be monitored by the states with efficient regional organizations such as ECOWAS providing backup and integrating these policies into their monitoring systems.

The different development goals were broken down into several dimensions:

• Human dimension with indicators such as (a) access to knowledge by all; (b) gender development
• Infrastructure dimension:  with universal access to potable water, sewerage facilities, electric­ity, ICT, housing and good transport system.
•  Environmental dimension where the fight against pollution and the preservation of the biodi­versity can be included.

At the subregional and regional integration, an

• Institutional dimension should be put forward with the strengthening of public institutions as  the indicator,
• Economic dimension with  (a) a stable macroeconomic framework; (b) strong and regular growth; (c) capacity for diversification and transformation and a
•  Social dimension with indicators such as  a) a well-fed population; (b) good health for all; (c) good social se­curity for all the vulnerable groups; (d) employment and income for all; (e) child protec­tion; (f) preservation and development of the cultural heritage.

                       

To have a broader view of all the development indicators, please go to the annex of the document (click here).

The development indicators put forward constitute a significant contribution towards the post-2015 development framework. The scope of the indicators and the different levels of government involved in their monitoring are proof enough of the ambitions of its authors. Furthermore, they echo the HLP’s call to leave no one behind in the post-2015 framework. Economic growth occupies an integral place in this proposal although other quality of life dimensions are not neglected. 

There's a clear distinction on what should be of what should be monitored at the national level and how  the international level could stimulate the progress towards development.

Ousmane Aly DIALLO

Mesurer la pauvreté multidimensionnelle: cadres conceptuels, identification des facteurs et robustesse aux schémas de pondération

Ce billet est une synthèse de l'étude de Khalid Soudi et de Siham Jouilile sur la mesure de la pauvreté multidimensionnelle. L'étude est disponible dans son intégralité, ici

A travers cette étude, une démarche empirique a été développée pour mesurer la pauvreté multidimensionnelle. En se référant au cadre conceptuel des capacités développé par A. Sen, une liste de fonctionnements centraux et basiques a été choisie en combinant une approche quantitative d’inertie, fondée sur l’ACP non linéaire, et une approche qualitative de perception de privation qui intègre la voix des pauvres.

Dans le cadre de ce travail, pour garder un recul par rapport aux limites inhérentes aux conceptions méthodologiques, deux approches de mesure ont été mises en application avec le même schéma de pondération : 

1.  l’approche d’Alkire & Foster (AF) ;
2.  et  l’approche des ensembles flous.

L’objectif consiste à tester la robustesse des résultats obtenus, et à voir comment notre conception et les mesures de la pauvreté multidimensionnelle dépendent du cadre conceptuel de mesure des indices composites.

D’emblée, pour tester la robustesse des résultats obtenus aux poids attribués aux items définissant l’espace de privation, les indices de pauvreté multidimensionnelle ont été mesurés selon un éventail de schémas de pondération.

L’analyse conduite s’articule autour de trois axes. Le premier axe présente et compare les résultats obtenus selon l’approche d’AF en adoptant différents schémas de pondération. Le deuxième axe compare les résultats obtenus selon l’approche de logique floue et l’approche d’AF, et ce en expérimentant différents schémas de pondération .Quant au troisième axe, il présente les résultats de l’approche de logique floue en se référant à des fonctions d’appartenance calculant le degré de privation individuelle sans affaiblissement de l’information contenue dans les variables de base. Ainsi, les variables quantitatives et polytomiques ont été traitées sans transformation préalable en variables dichotomiques.

Les résultats obtenus montrent que tous les schémas de pondération structurés par dimension donnent lieu à des indices de pauvreté (taux de pauvreté, indice de pauvreté multidimensionnelle (MPI), vulnérabilité à la pauvreté et pauvreté sévère) significativement inférieurs à ceux mesurés par le schéma de pondération proposé par AF. Ensuite, il s’avère, pour le moment, que ce dernier surestime le taux de pauvreté en comparaison avec les autres schémas de pondération. La dominance stochastique des courbes de pauvreté a permis de confirmer la robustesse de ces résultats. 

La non hiérarchisation des attributs de privation par dimension montre, quelle que soit la pondération retenue, une surévaluation des indices de la pauvreté multidimensionnelle. Cette tendance se vérifie au niveau de tous les schémas de pondération et concerne tous les indices de la pauvreté multidimensionnelle. Au vu de ces résultats, il s’avère important de repenser la structuration de l’approche AF pour remédier aux biais inhérents à la hiérarchisation des indicateurs par dimension.

En se plaçant dans le cadre méthodologique proposé par l’approche AF (hiérarchisation des items de privation par dimension), les résultats de l’approche de logique floue montrent que, quel que soit le schéma de pondération adopté, les taux de pauvreté multidimensionnelle obtenus sont inférieurs à ceux émanant de l’approche d’AF. Les écarts constatés deviennent plus significatifs en adoptant le schéma de pondération proposé par AF.

Tableau 5 : indices de la pauvreté multidimensionnelle. Comparaison entre les approches de logique floue et d'Alkire-Foster. Cas de la pondération égale par dimension et par attribut Hiérarchisation des attributs par dimension

	Composantes basiques et centraux du bien-être	Pondération			Approche logique floue			Approche Alkire et Foster
					Indice unidimensionnel (%)	Contribution Relative (%)		Taux de pauvreté censuré (%)						Contribution Relative (%)
Dimension 1 : Capital scolaire
Scolarisation des enfants		0.083	13.7			12.1			5.8						11.2
Scolarisation des adultes		0.083	15.9			14.1			5.7						10.9
Dimension 2 : Santé maternelle et nutrition des enfants
Nutrition des enfants		0.056	4.0			2.4				1.3						1.6
Consultation médicale		0.056	10.5			6.2				1.8						2.3
Accouchement en milieu surveillé		0.056	15.8			6.2				5.5						6.9
Dimension 3 : Cadre de vie
Électricité		0.042	14.8			6.6					6.1						5.9
Eau		0.042	7.3			3.2					2.5						2.4
Équipements sanitaires		0.042	17.7			7.8					6.4						6.1
Équipements ménagers		0.042	11.8			5.2					5.1						4.9
Dimension 4 : Participation au marché du travail
Pouvoir exercer un emploi		0.167	7.7			13.6							1.7					6.4
Dimension 5 : Consommation courante
Se pourvoir en viandes rouges ou blanches et au poisson		0.167			5.2	9.2						4.6								17.5
Dimension 6 : Pouvoir économique
Inégalité de revenu		0.167		7.7			13.5					6.2							23.9
Taux de pauvreté multidimensionnelle (%)					9.45								11.7
Intensité de pauvreté													37.3
Indice de pauvreté multidimensionnelle (MPI) (%)													4.36
Taux de vulnérabilité													15.0
Pauvreté sévère													3.2

Source : données de base de l’ENNVM 2007, HCP.

La non hiérarchisation des indicateurs par dimension approfondit ces écarts. Par ailleurs, cette divergence montre également la tendance prononcée de l’approche AF à surévaluer l’incidence de pauvreté en comparaison avec l’approche de logique floue.

D’emblée, en se référant à des fonctions d’appartenance calculant le degré de privation individuelle sans affaiblissement de l’information contenue dans les variables de base, les taux de pauvreté multidimensionnelle obtenus selon l’approche de logique floue, tout en montrant une sensibilité importante aux schémas de pondération, restent également et largement inférieurs à ceux obtenus selon l’approche AF.

En dernier lieu, il n’est pas moins important de préciser que l’apport de ce travail est de mettre en lumière certaines limites inhérentes aux approches de mesure de la pauvreté multidimensionnelle. C’est un préalable pour toute utilisation avertie de ces approches et des enseignements qui en découlent. Encore est-il nécessaire de considérer cette contribution comme une première étape pour bien fonder les développements analytiques se rapportant au profil de la pauvreté multidimensionnelle, l’analyse de ses facteurs et de sa reproduction sociale, et le ciblage des politiques publiques de lutte contre la pauvreté, la vulnérabilité à l’appauvrissement et les inégalités de privation.

Khalid Soudi et Siham Jouilile
Haut-Commissariat au Plan du Maroc